Tuesday, January 7, 2014

Ten More ObamaCare Predictions

We should all be concerned about the future because we will have to spend the rest of our lives there.

Charles Kettering (1876-1958), CEO General Motors

In a January 8 National Online piece, Grace-Marie Turner,  founder and CEO of the Galen Institute makes these 10 ObamaCare  predictions.

1.      Many won’t pay -   She notes that only about half of those who pick a plan  pay to enroll.  Until they pay, they are not officially enrolled.

2.      Others will stop paying -  People who enroll pay month to month,  and if the past is an indication, many will stop paying once they realize the magnitude of increased premiums and deductibles.

3.      Many of the newly insured will be those who were kicked off their previous private plans.

4.      Another broken promise – We are likely to end up with fewer patients with private plans and more on Medicaid.

5.      Many of the presently uninsured won’t enroll –Because of exorbitant premiums and deductibles, even with subsidies,  many will simply not enroll.

6.      Sicker and older enrollees with outnurmber younger and healthier enrollees.

7.      Tens of millions will see plans cancelled – Next waves of lost policies will be cause small businesses can’t afford to cover their employees.

8.      Most of the new enrollees will on Medicaid.  In Kentucky,  85% of newly insured enrolled on Medicaid or the Children’s Health Program.

9.       Fewer insurance companies will participate in 2015, with fewer choices with higher premiums and deductibles.

10.  Court cases against ObamaCare will continues, and so far,  18 of 20 cases have granted injunctions against oral contraceptive mandate.   Eleven state attorney generals are suing federal government for changing provisions of law.

Given all of these predictions,  it’s a fair bet Congress will pass legislation favoring delay of individual mandate for a year, which may trigger major structural changes in the health law.

Tweet:   in 2014,  enrollment in ObamaCare will fal short ,  the individual mandate may be delayed, premiums will rise, and Medicaid will expand.

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