Doomsday Scenario for Obamacare: Libertarian and Conservative View
Doomsday is near; die all, die merrily.
Shakespeare (1564-1616), King Henry IV
November 12, 2012 – Will Obamacare now march forward –
unimpeded by its critics? I know not,
but I expect it will continue to encounter resistance from the states and those
who believe it will impose an unacceptable and unsustainable burden on
Here are two views.
Michael Cannon from the Libertarian Cato Institute, 13 reasons health exchanges
are likely to fail.
First, states are
under no obligation to create one.
an Obamacare exchange would be illegal in 14 states. Alabama, Arizona, Georgia,
Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Louisiana, Missouri, Montana, Ohio, Oklahoma,
Tennessee, Utah, and Virginia have enacted either statutes or constitutional
amendments (or both) forbidding state employees to participate in an essential
exchange function: implementing Obamacare’s individual and employer mandates.
exchange would cost its state an estimated $10 million to $100 million per
year, necessitating tax increases.
November 16 deadline is no more real than the “deadlines” for implementing REAL
ID, which have been pushed back repeatedly since 2008.
can always create an exchange later if they choose.
Sixth, a state-created exchange is not a state-controlled
exchange. All exchanges will be controlled by Washington.
authorized no funds for federal “fallback” exchanges. So Washington may not be
able to impose Exchanges on states at all.
Obama administration has yet to provide crucial information that states need before they can make an informed
an exchange sets state officials up to take the blame when Obamacare increases
insurance premiums and denies care to the sick. State officials won’t want
their names on this disastrous mess.
an exchange would be assisting in the creation of a “public option” that would drive domestic health-insurance
carriers out of business through unfair competition.
Obamacare remains unpopular. The latest Kaiser Family Foundation poll found that only 38 percent of the public supports it.
defaulting to a federal exchange exempts a state’s employers from the employer
mandate — a tax of $2,000 per worker per year (the tax applies to companies
with more than 59 employees, but for such companies that tax applies after the
30th employee, not the 59th). If all states did so, that would exempt 18
million Americans from the individual mandate’s tax of $2,085 per family of
four. Avoiding those taxes improves a state’s prospects for job creation, and
protects the conscience rights of employers and individuals whom the Obama
administration is forcing to purchase contraceptives coverage.
an exchange reduces the federal deficit. Obamacare offers its deficit-financed
subsidies to private health insurers only through state-created
exchanges. If all states declined, federal deficits would fall by roughly $700
billion over ten years.
Cannon concludes: “For similar reasons, states should
decline to implement Obamacare’s Medicaid expansion. The Supreme Court gave
states that option. All states should exercise it. “
From John Goodman, conservative economist, father of health savings
accounts, founder of National Center for
Policy Analysis, in his blog, Health Alert: “Did the Election Save Obamacare?”
ObamaCare is not paid for.
Second, ObamaCare promises what it cannot deliver.
ObamaCare mandates and subsidies
will destabilize entire sectors of the economy.
ObamaCare creates perverse
incentives that threaten the quality of care.
A weakly enforced mandate will
undermine the health insurance marketplace.
Sixth, A strongly enforced mandate will strain almost
every family budget.
Goodman concludes. “These problems have nothing to do with
Republican opposition. They are inherent in the legislation itself. Democrats
will be forced to face them whether they want to or not.”
Tweet: Michael Cannon, Cato Institute & John
Goodman. National Center of Policy Analysis, conclude Obamacare is unsustainable
for budgetary reasons.
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