Thursday, August 18, 2016
Who Are
You Going to Believe: Insurance Actuaries
of ObamaCare Visionaries?
Who are
you going to believe, me or your lying eyes?
Groucho
Marx (1895-1977)
Following the lead of other major health insurers, Aetna has
withdrawn from 536 of 778 ObamaCare health exchange markets. This abrupt withdrawal reminds me of a
Groucho Marx story.
When his wife caught him in bed with another woman, Groucho
denied any wrong doing. He asked his
wife,”Who are going to believe me or your lying eyes?
Betrayal?
In my blog title, I use the word “betrayal” because
President Obama promised consumers they could keep their plans, doctors, hospitals,
while keeping their premiums low.
Instead, of course, consumers have
found few of these promises apply to them.
The old phrase “finders keepers” apparently does not apply to ObamaCare.
In
the case of health insurance, health
actuaries are the “lying eyes,” and “me” is the government who is telling them
what they are experiencing isn’t reality. Actuaries are financial experts hire to
calculate the “actual “ reality-based
risks. The government policy people
are promissory visionaries of what they think might happen.
Who to Believe?
Who are you going to believe independent actuaries calculating risk who are predicting insurers
must increase premiums by an average of 18% to 23% across multiple markets or
government officials, who are saying don’t believe your eyes, things will get
better.
Doug Badger and Marilyn Travenenar,
former CMS and government officials, now
working on the anti-Obama side of the ledger say CMS is “cooking the books” to
hide heavy losses and to present a falsely-positive view of the future ( “Adjusting ObamaCare Reality,” National Review Online, August 16. 2016). Travenner notes, “Insurers,
unlike government spin doctors, understand that, while one can adjust the numbers, one cannot adjust reality. For insurers to participate in ObamaCare – as
well as consumers and taxpayers, who bear the brunt of the law’s costs and
dislocations, the reality isn’t good.”
Don’t worry say ObamaCare
advocates, we’re from the government and you can trust us. Every comprehensive government
program has hiccups (Jeff Spross, “ObamaCare Is Not Doomed “, August 16,
The Week, and “Editorial
Board, “ObamaCare Will Survive,” New York
Times, August 18, 2016).
Government and ObamaCare can always
print money, incur debt, and stay in business by increasing subsidies, having taxpayers bail them out, passing a
Public Option, and offering Medicare to
everybody over 55, Never mind that
enrollment in exchanges have been flat, at 11 million half of what was
predicted, that there is too much “churn”
as enrollment drop out after receiving care, and that exchange polices are not attractive
to health people.
Could it be that highly
compensated conservative actuaries are lousy at math? Could it be that ObamaCare is simply designed
by pie—in-the-sky theorists who have no concept of risk and profit and who
dedicated to the proposition that failures will lead to universal care if we
only wait long enough to come to our senses?
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