Friday, August 19, 2016

Trump’s  Apology and Humbleness Speech
I listened closely last night to Donald Trump’s  scripted speech last night. 
Trump apologized for past blunt or harsh statements,  appealed directly to Afro-Americans for their support,  said he was a law and order candidate, and gave a bleak assessment of what the future would look like under a President Hillary Clinton.     That same night Paul Manafort, his campaign manager, resigned.   Today Trump visited Baton Rouge to show he cared more about flood-ravaged people than President Obama who was playing golf at Martha's Vineyard among the Democratic swells.
Will this new scripted Trump change the trajectory of the current  political campaign,  which at the moment,  is decidedly and decisively in favor of Hillary Clinton if you believe the Real Clear Politics average of polls, which should Clinton ahead in 7 or the 9  states Trump needs to win?
Can Trump convert this into a “change election,” based on a discontent with the economy,  ISIS “radical Islam” threats,  bias against  police,  unhappiness with a dysfunctional health law, and a populist revolt against the establishment on both sides of the political aisle.
Can Trump,  like Harry Truman before him, come from  behind as a political underdog to win in  a late season political surge?
Can Trump neutralize a powerful mainstream and social media to win the hearts and minds of enough women, college graduates, and millenials  to squeak  out a political victory?
Is Hillary Clinton like a modern-day ship like the Queen Mary, impossible to turn around on a dime?  
Will some technological revolution,  like jet plans making the Queen Mary obsolete or further email scandals, change the political chemistry
Can she just sit on her lead and her Democratic assets,  which includes 98% of the black vote,  70% of the Hispanic vote, and at least 60% of the women’s and youth vote.
Will some catastrophic event,  like a 9/11 attack or a shopping mall massacre,  or large scale terrorist happenings in Europe,    change the political equation?   Will more email revelations  of Hillary perjuries , change peoples’ minds?  
None of these things seem likely.

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