Friday, December 27, 2013

Forecast for 2014

Forewarned forearmed.

Cervantes (1647-1616), DonQuixote de la Mancha

D.C. = Darkness and Confusion

Washington pundit on meaning of D.C. as in Washington, D.C.

George Carlin (1937-2008) once gave this nightly weather forecast:

 "Continued darkness with widely scattered light in the morning." 

 I feel the same way about the Obamacare forecast for 2014:

 Continued darkness until November 2014 followed by widely scattered light for the remainder of President Obama’s lame duck term.

Here is the rest of the forecast.

1.       Darkness and confusion will reign in Washington and in contested Senate and House races until November
2.      Republicans will  rain on Democratic parade by repeatedly airing “ You can keep your doctor and health plan, Period” video clips and by featuring unsubsidized voters who cannot afford new health exchange plans.

3.      GOP will retain House and win Senate by one vote. Six senators in states won by Romney will lose.

4.      Congress will vote to repeal ObamaCare. Obama will veto, and veto will not be overridden.

5.      President Obama’s approval rating will drop into low 30s,  and approval rating of health law will plunge to 25.

6.       Ten million more Americans,  not only in individual, but in big group markets, will lose their coverage.

7.      Ten to twenty million Americans will join Medicaid ranks. Many of these will have hard time finding doctors to care for them because more than 40% of doctors will not accept new Medicaid patients because of low reimbursements and bureaucratic hassles. 

8.     A number of lawsuits will successfully challenge President Obama’s ignoring and unilaterally changing ObamaCare provisions without consulting Congress.

9.       Costs of insurance and deductibles will continue to rise as young fail to meet quota of 2.3 million by March 31,  and death spiral,  higher rates for older citizens, sets in.

10.  More Americans will lose their insurance than will be covered by health exchanges.

11.  Penalties for those who did not buy coverage or who were unable to do so because of malfunction will not be enforced or will be delayed because it will become a raging controversy.

12.  Democrats will scramble for cover from ObamaCare and will ask for delay or suspension of individual mandate and extension of employer mandate.

13.  Stocks for health plans will plunge as ObamaCare raises expenses and cuts profits.  Congress will be forced to bail plans out to make ObamaCare  viable.

14. There will continue to be clouds and turbulence until Congress presents and passes an alternative plan containing these features universal health tax credits,  competition among health plans and providers across state lines, easily accessible health savings accounts,  price transparency, disruptive innovations,  fewer regulations,  and national tort reform.

Tweet:  The weather forecast for 2014 for ObamaCare is continued Darkness and Confusion followed by scattered light after November elections.

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