Sunday, November 18, 2012
Of “Black Swans” as Spoilers of the Health Care’s “800 Pound Gorilla” Theory: a Prose Poem
A rare bird on earth, comparable to a black swan
Juvenal (A.D c.55-c.130), Satires
November 19, 2012
This is for you,
You true blue believers in Big Government’s health reform,
Who believe in ideologically-driven data as the ultimate answer
To social justice conundrums and a blessing for us all.
Who believe somehow from on high in the blue sky
You can shape all events with equal outcomes for all
Who maintain the 800 pound gorilla known as Obamacare,
Provides the fairest solution for us all
But alas there is a spoilsport phenomenon out there known as the Black Swan
Black swans are large events that are both unexpected and highly consequential
Most of these large unexpected spoiling events surprise the Gorilla.
Who attributes them to conservative troublemakers resembling Atilla.
The events have a major unexpected effect,
Due to the 800 pound Gorilla theory’s defect.
But the Gorilla always rationalizes the surprises as expected,
Because hindsight data shows the surprises could have been corrected.
Take the problem of rises in costs rather than reductions in expenses,
Entitlement programs are said to be free- to mitigate markets’ offenses.
Instead premiums rise, access for the insured goes down, hospital-employed doctor fees go up,
Electronic records drive costs up, health care benefits plunge,
How can we this volatility, variability, and disorder expunge
What are the lessons to be learned
According to NN Taleb, author of the Black Swan Theory:
1) Human beings need some dose of disorder to develop
2) We shoud favor business that learn from their mistakes
3) Small is beautiful, but it also more efficient
4. Trial and error beats academic knowledge
5) Decision makers must have skin in the game.
Tweet: Health reform produces unexpected surprises called Black Swans which surprises the 800 pound federal Gorilla and which he did not expect
1. N.N.Taleb, “Learning to Love Volatility, WSJ November 17-18, Wall Street Journal
2. N.N.Taleb, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, Penguin, 2007