Obamacare Impact , as Cited in the Medicare’s Chief Actuary’s Report

Rick Foster, Medicare’s Chief Actuary, states the following in his just released Actuary’s Report.

• Health care costs will go up. National health expenditures will increase from 17 percent of GDP now to 21 percent under the new law and will be higher than without the legislation. [Page 4]

• Health care shortages are “ probable.” Because of the increased demand for health care, “ there may not be enough doctors to provide services desired by the additional 34 million insured persons.” [Page 20]

• 14 million employees will lose their employer coverage. Employees of small firms are especially at risk. [Page 7]

• 2 million employees who lose coverage will have to enroll in Medicaid. [Page 3]

• A Medicaid insurance card will not guarantee care. An estimated 18 million people will be added to Medicaid, AND there will not be enough doctors to care for them.. [Page 3]

• However, because there is no corresponding increase in the supply of caregivers, “it is reasonable to expect that a significant portion of the increased demand for Medicaid would be difficult to meet, particularly over the first few years.” [Page 20]

• One in ten insured workers will see their health benefits taxed. By 2019, more than 10% of insured workers will “be in employer plans with benefit values in excess of the thresholds (before changes to reduce benefits) and this percentage would increase rapidly thereafter.” [Page 13]

• Higher taxes will lead to higher premiums. The new taxes on medical devices, prescription drugs, and insurance plans “will be passed on through to health consumers ias higher drug and device prices and higher insurance premiums.” [Page 17]

• More than one-half trillion in Medicare cuts will occur. The new health law cuts “$575 billion” from Medicare. [Page 4]

• Medicare cuts will make almost one in every seven hospitals unprofitable . About “15 percent of Part A providers would become unprofitable within the 10-year projection period.” [Page 10]

• Overall access to care for seniors will go down. Because of the law’s payment reductions, “providers for whom Medicare constitutes a substantive portion of their business could find it difficult to remain profitable and, absent legislative intervention, may end their participation in the program. [Page 10]

• 7.4 million people will lose access to Medicare Advantage plans. Enrollment in MA plans will be cut in half (from its projected level of 14.8 million under the current law to 7.4 million under the new law). [Page 11]

• The new “Medicare Tax” doesn’t go to Medicare. “Despite the title of this tax, this provision is unrelated to Medicare; in particular, the revenues generated by the tax on unearned income are not allocated to the Medicare trust funds.” [Page 9]

• Budgetary double-counting will not improve Medicare’s solvency. Medicare cuts “cannot be simultaneously used to finance other federal outlays (such as the coverage expansions) and to extend the [life of the Medicare] trust fund, despite the appearance of this result from the respective accounting conventions.” [Page 9]

• The new long-term care insurance plan (CLASS Act) is unsound. The program faces “a significant risk of failure” because the high costs will attract sicker people and lead to low participation. [Page 15]

Conclusion

Medicare’s Chief Actuary says the government will create more Medicaid recipients, take away Medicare benefits, increase overall costs, tax to defray costs, decrease access to care by reducing doctor pay and driving them out of practice.