Thursday, January 23, 2014

Adversity, ObamaCare, and the State of the Union

So it is more useful to watch a man in times of adversity, and in adversity to discern what kind of man he is; for then at last words of truth are drawn from the depths of the heart, and the mask is torn off, and reality remains.

Lucretius (99-55 BC), De Rerum Natura

On January 28 President Obama gives the State of the Union address.   What he has to say, if anything, about the State of ObamaCare will be fascinating.   For at the moment, ObamaCare is in a State of Adversity.

Perhaps I should say a State of Adverse Selection, which can be defined as follows:

Adverse selection, anti-selection, or negative selection is a term refers to a market process in which undesired results occur when buyers and sellers have asymmetric information (access to different information); the "bad" products or services are more likely to be selected.

To put it more simply,  Americans are not cooperating or responding the way the Obama administration would like them to in  the ObamaCare rollout.   

They are not signing up in the numbers desired,   older sick people are enrolling but not the younger and healthier , the Hispanics are staying away in droves,   only 11% of  the uninsured have bothered to select a health exchange plan,  it looks as if universal coverage will not be achieved, in the individual and small group market somewhere between 6 million and 10 million health plans are being cancelled,  there are rumors the insurance industry may collapse and have to be bailed out with federal dollars,   56% of Americans disapprove of the health law, and higher taxes, higher premiums, fewer benefits, and less care  are being predicted. 

This is not a pretty picture. 

Maybe President Obama can pretty it all up by saying ObamaCare is being fixed,  that the back-end of is in  an advanced state of repair,  that your personal and confidential health information is safe from identity thieves, and you can trust big government to do the right thing.  

So far, Americans are not buying, and President Obama and his crew are groping for straws and are in the midst of desperately trying to resell their health care program in the face of adversity.
The polls are not promising. Diversity, adversity, and uncertainty still loom large out there in the American hustings.  The most recent Quinnepiac polls reveals 59% of Americans disapprove of Obama's handling of health care and his health care law  with only 36% approving.   The other bad news is that 49% believe Obama to be dishonest, and 77% think the country's  economy is “not good” or “poor.”   

 The good news is that most Americans still deem Obama as a “good guy,” and 67% say they will be watching the State of the Union Address.

Tweet:   Obamacare is not going well; 59% disapprove of President Obama’s handling of health care.  How he will speak of this adversity in the State of the Union Address is unknown.

No comments: