ObamaCare Collapse, an Example of Wishful Thinking

Wishful thinking is the formation of beliefs and making decisions according to what might be pleasing to imagine instead of by appealing to evidence, rationality, or reality

Wishful Thinking, Wikipedia

As ObamaCare hurdles towards implementation four days from now, on October 1,  a school of thought if growing  that says:  Let it go.  Let it collapse of its glitches.   The American public will see it for what it is, a bungled monstrosity.  ObamaCare will collapse like a House of Cards.

I went to the Internet today, typed in “ObamaCare collapse”, and these titles appeared.

·         “Let ObamaCare Collapse”

·         “Just Let ObamaCare’s House of Cards Collapse”

·         “The Rapid Collapse of ObamaCare”

·         “This is the Beginning of Collapse of ObamaCare”

·         “ObamaCare Collapse”

·         “ObamaCare will Collapse”

·         “ObamaCare Could Collapse”

·         “Will ObamaCare Collapse under Its Own Weight”

·         “Republicans Should Let ObamaCare Fail”

Among those in the “Let ObamaCare collapse” school,  are Daniel Henninger of the Wall Street Journal,  Dr. Ben Carson of Johns Hopkins School of Medicine,   and George Will in his Washington Post column.

As much as I admire these gentlemen,  I  do not share their view.   I do not think ObamaCare  will collapse.   It may be delayed.    Parts of it will be deleted or altered.   It will remain controversial right up to the November 4, 2014 mid-terms.  It will continue to trigger “future shock” premiu increases, particularly among the young.  It will result in employers ceasing coverage or handing coverage off to private exchanges,  to defined benefit plans,  or to government exchanges.  Its software will develop innumerable glitches.   Fraud and abuse may run rampant when government does not check the eligibility of those seeking to qualify for subsidies.  It will still contribute to the transformation of America to a part-time nation.   

It will not thrive,  but it will survive.   The Democrats have too much at stake,  namely their reputation as compassionate creators of national programs protecting  the populace, for it to fail.   The President’s second term and his future legacy hinges upon his namesake,  ObamaCare, surviving the travails, troubles, and tribulations  of implementation .

Here is how Daniel Henninger explains what is at stake (“Henninger: Let ObamaCare Collapse,” Wall Street Journal, September 24, 2013."

“As its Oct. 1 implementation date arrives, ObamaCare is the biggest bet that American liberalism has made in 80 years on its foundational beliefs. This thing called "ObamaCare" carries on its back all the justifications, hopes and dreams of the entitlement state. The chance is at hand to let its political underpinnings collapse, perhaps permanently.

If ObamaCare fails, or seriously falters, the entitlement state will suffer a historic loss of credibility with the American people. It will finally be vulnerable to challenge and fundamental change. But no mere congressional vote can achieve that. Only the American people can kill ObamaCare.

No matter what Sen. Ted Cruz and his allies do, ObamaCare won't die. It would return another day in some other incarnation.

A political idea, once it becomes a national program, achieves legitimacy with the public. Over time, that legitimacy deepens. So it has been with the idea of national social insurance.

But ObamaCare's Achilles' heel is technology. The software glitches are going to drive people insane.

Creating really large software for institutions is hard. Creating big software that can communicate across unrelated institutions is unimaginably hard. ObamaCare's software has to communicate—accurately—across a mind-boggling array of institutions: HHS, the IRS, Medicare, the state-run exchanges, and a whole galaxy of private insurers' and employers' software systems. “

I am not as eloquent as Henninger,   My reasons for thinking ObamaCare will survive are more prosaic and pragmatic.

• The government is incapable of handling failure. It cannot accept defeat when its political reputation and future is at stake.

·         It seldom abandons a project, much less a national law  which reflects its political ideology and to which it is committed.

·         It is not dealing with its own money, but that of political allies and taxpayers.

·         Its success is measured in good intentions, not results, such as providing good care and access to Medicaid patients.

·         It succeeds by growing too big to fail and too influential to stop.

·         It cannot go out of business, can print money to keep on going, and is propped up by taxpayer money.

Tweet: ObamaCare will fumble, stumble, be delayed, prove costly, not deliver on its promises. Survival is the nature of the bureaucratic  beast.