Tuesday, December 20, 2011

Presidential and Health Reform Odds

It’s unwise to bet against the House, the President, and the Law, but you might get lucky.


December 20, 2011 - In 2009, I wrote a book entitled Obama, Doctors, and Health Reform: A Doctor Assesses the Odds for Success (IUniverse).

The book comes to mind as I assess the current odds on the Presidential race and health reform repeal as set forth by these two sources.

One, Intrade.com, which portrays itself as the world’s leading prediction market, with political odds as seen by the wisdom of crowds, viz, people betting on outcomes.

 Mitt Romney to be Republican presidential candidate, 67.1% chance

 Newt Gingrich to be Republican presidential candidate, 9.9% chance

 Jon Huntsman to be Republican presidential candidate, 5.3% chance

 Ron Paul to be Republican presidential candidate, 8.3% chance

 Rick Perry to Republican presidential candidate, 2.6%

 Barack Obama to be re-elected as president, 50.6% chance

Two, Real Clear Politics, favorability odds.

 Obama job approval, approve 45.8%, disapprove 50.0%

 Congressional approval, approve 11.3%, disapprove 83.7%

 Country going in right direction, 23.0%, wrong direction 71.2%

 Obama and Democrats health plan, approve 36.4%, disapprove 49.8%

 Favor repeal of health plan 49.7%, against repeal, 39.3%


Odds favor Mitt Romney as Republican candidate for President, and President Obama as eventual winner. Odds indicate Most Americans disapprove of health reform law and desire its repeal.

Odds indicate Presidential election in November may depend on Supreme Court decision in June on constitutionality of health reform law.

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