Friday, August 15, 2014

Bleak November

No warmth, no cheerfulness, no healthfulness,

No comfortable feel in any member –

No shade, no shine, no butterflies, no bees,

No fruits, no flowers, no leaves, no birds,

November! No!

Thomas Hood (1799-1845), English engraver, writer, and poet

November is shaping up as a bleak time for President Obama.

He may lose the Senate and fail to regain the House in the November midterm elections.

Health care premiums will be on the rise, often by double digits in states with key Senate elections states, further alienating the electorate.

His poll numbers continue to plummet to all time lows on job approval, economic performance, and conduct of foreign affairs.

There are doubts as to how many will re-enroll once their first premiums have been paid, and once they learn how much their premiums have gone up.

As many as 300,000 who enrolled in health exchanges the first-go-around may be declared ineligible and have their subsidies withdrawn, which will give a negative spin on the political merry-go-round.

Health care costs for businesses will up 6.5% or more, and many businesses will shift those costs to unhappy employees.

Real unemployment remains in the 12% to 13% range, and the most recent WJ/NBC poll indicates “widespread economic anxiety.”

The next health exchange sign-up starts on November 15, in the heart of the upcoming holiday season, when economic anxieties are at the worst.

Rumors persist that the Supreme Court may rule health plans subsidies on the federal health exchanges are illegal and violate the health law.

The first act of the new Congress, if Republicans have the majority in both House and Senate, will be to repeal ObamaCare, which President Obama will veto and will set the stage for a nasty New Year.

All in all, November promises to be a month for Republicans for ObamaCare to try to dismember and for President Obama to disremember. Of course, things could turn around by November, and Obama’s prospects could re-peak but for the moment things look bleak.

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