Tectonic Movements  and The End of Obamacare

Tectonic – Referring or pertaining to forces or conditions inside the earth that cause movements or the crust, as earthquakes, folds, faults, and the like.

I’ve been reading a book by a noted historian, John Lewis Gaddis, The United States and the End of the Cold War (Oxford University Press, 1992).  In chapter nine, “Tectonics, History, and the End of the Cold War,” Gaddis explains that changes in the physical and political world can change abruptly. “Conditions can persist for years with little attention, only to have them disappear – to the astonishment of almost everyone – almost overnight.” This, he says, is due to underlying political and economic trends, not unlike geological fault lines.

What are these fault lines, that ended communism,  and do they apply to Obamacare? According to Gaddis, the pollitcal and economic fault lines are:

·         One, new criteria for power.   In the case of the cold war, it became obvious that economic progress and centralized planning did not  mesh.   At this stage, Obamacare smacks of centralized planning, but whether the U.S. is making economic progress is still up debate. All we know is that economic growth is about half what is has been in irecoveries from previous recessions. One of the new criteria for power is economic growth or lack of it.
 

·         Two, collapse of authoritarianism – Here Gaddis argues government cannot force citizens to produce goods and services according to a central plan.  Central planners simply  cannot respond fast enough to shifts of supply and demand, to satisfy most of the population.  Only self-regulating markets can do that.   With Obamacare,  it seems improbable that it will have health exchanges up and running by October 1, 2013 and whether enough people will sign up for exchanges to make them worthwhile.  The government does not yet have the computer capability to handle the load that individuals that may sign up and flow of information will demand.  Whether the series of “mandates” in the law or the IRS  for 20,000 new IRS agents and an unprecedented expansion of the IRS computer system will cause authoritarianism to collapse remains to be seen. That may depend on the outcome of the IRS "scandal." Another question is: will the health system collapse if Obamacare collapses? I doubt it.

·         Three, the Decline of Brutality – Brutality among totalitarian regimes no lomnger works. This may be due to openess and transaprency engendered by the Internte and the social media. Secretness and behind the scenes political maniupulations  no longer works  well in the Internet age.  Anyway, Obamacare is not communism nor socialism for the matter. It is anti-colonolism,  Brutality is not part of the Obamacare agenda,  unless one deems IRS targeting of conservative tax-exemptions while letting liberal groups qualify with qualms as selective economic brutality.   It may be worth noting that the head of the IRS visited the White House 118 times in two years, presumably to prepare Obamacare for IRS intervention and enforcement.

Conclusion

Using the end of the cold war as a tectonic metaphor for the end of Obamacare is a stretch.  Nevertheless, there may be a few elements of similarity – the decline of the importance of central planning,  the impotence of this planning in causing economic growth,  the apparent  use of the a central government agency to undercut one’s ideological opponents, and the impact of consumers as a tectonic force in upending government because of continuing record levels of unemployment.  
I do not foresee Obamacare coming to an abrupt end.    The political parties representing government and the markets are too evenly matched, and the party in power will retain its veto power through 2016.  Its authority to force businesses, physicians, and other elements of health care economy may diminish, but it still retains the bully pulpit,  has an existing law on its side,   appeals to millions  dependent on the government dole' has, for the moment at least, the media on its side, and is about to launch a multimillion PR campaign to “sell” Obamacare.

Tweet:    Despite tectonic forces that may erupt and end Obamacare,  this is not likely to happen given the political circumstances