Political Forecast of  Health Reform

Weather forecast tonight: dark.  Turning light by morning.

George Carlin, American comedian as Al Sheet the Hippy Dippy Weatherman, 1966

April 14, 2012 – The political forecast for the health reform is dark but may turn partly light by June or November

Intrade.com puts the health reform weather forecast in perspective with these predictions (Intrade.com, the world's largest prediction market, allows individuals to trade contracts on whether a future event will occur. Intrade facilitates trades between individuals, but does not participate in trading. The mininum deposit for opening a real money account is $25.00.)
   

   Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012 - 60/8%.   This is realistic, given the power of the incumbency, and the ability of President Obama to dominate a friendly media.

Mitt Romney to be elected President in 2012- 38.1%.   This too may be realistic, but hinges on Supreme Court decision on health law.  on strength of economic recovery, gas prices, and events like Israeli attack on Iran.

Marco Rubio to be Republican VP nominee in 2012- 24.7%.– This may be important in gaining Hispanic vote, which could be pivotal in election. Polls now favors Obama with Hispanics because of his tough stand on immigration.

U.S. economy to go into recession during 2012 – 14.0%.   Lack of recession dip plays in Obama favor. But 2013 promises to be a different story, as across-the-board take hikes kick in.

 U.S. Supreme Court to be ruled unconstitiutional by U.S. Supreme Court -62.0% -  On this hinges the future of  Obama- desired and implemented health reform.

  Republicans to control Senate in 2012 elections  - 62.1%.   This is crucial if Republicans are to control or repeal Obamacare.

Tweet: Health reform future hinges on Obama re -election, Supreme Court decision on individual and Medicaid mandates, on control of Senate after 2012.