Thursday, May 30, 2013

Tectonic Movements  and The End of Obamacare
Tectonic – Referring or pertaining to forces or conditions inside the earth that cause movements or the crust, as earthquakes, folds, faults, and the like.
I’ve been reading a book by a noted historian, John Lewis Gaddis, The United States and the End of the Cold War (Oxford University Press, 1992).  In chapter nine, “Tectonics, History, and the End of the Cold War,” Gaddis explains that changes in the physical and political world can change abruptly. “Conditions can persist for years with little attention, only to have them disappear – to the astonishment of almost everyone – almost overnight.” This, he says, is due to underlying political and economic trends, not unlike geological fault lines.
What are these fault lines, that ended communism,  and do they apply to Obamacare? According to Gaddis, the pollitcal and economic fault lines are:

·         One, new criteria for power.   In the case of the cold war, it became obvious that economic progress and centralized planning did not  mesh.   At this stage, Obamacare smacks of centralized planning, but whether the U.S. is making economic progress is still up debate. All we know is that economic growth is about half what is has been in irecoveries from previous recessions. One of the new criteria for power is economic growth or lack of it.
·         Two, collapse of authoritarianism – Here Gaddis argues government cannot force citizens to produce goods and services according to a central plan.  Central planners simply  cannot respond fast enough to shifts of supply and demand, to satisfy most of the population.  Only self-regulating markets can do that.   With Obamacare,  it seems improbable that it will have health exchanges up and running by October 1, 2013 and whether enough people will sign up for exchanges to make them worthwhile.  The government does not yet have the computer capability to handle the load that individuals that may sign up and flow of information will demand.  Whether the series of “mandates” in the law or the IRS  for 20,000 new IRS agents and an unprecedented expansion of the IRS computer system will cause authoritarianism to collapse remains to be seen. That may depend on the outcome of the IRS "scandal." Another question is: will the health system collapse if Obamacare collapses? I doubt it.

·         Three, the Decline of Brutality – Brutality among totalitarian regimes no lomnger works. This may be due to openess and transaprency engendered by the Internte and the social media. Secretness and behind the scenes political maniupulations  no longer works  well in the Internet age.  Anyway, Obamacare is not communism nor socialism for the matter. It is anti-colonolism,  Brutality is not part of the Obamacare agenda,  unless one deems IRS targeting of conservative tax-exemptions while letting liberal groups qualify with qualms as selective economic brutality.   It may be worth noting that the head of the IRS visited the White House 118 times in two years, presumably to prepare Obamacare for IRS intervention and enforcement.

Using the end of the cold war as a tectonic metaphor for the end of Obamacare is a stretch.  Nevertheless, there may be a few elements of similarity – the decline of the importance of central planning,  the impotence of this planning in causing economic growth,  the apparent  use of the a central government agency to undercut one’s ideological opponents, and the impact of consumers as a tectonic force in upending government because of continuing record levels of unemployment.  
I do not foresee Obamacare coming to an abrupt end.    The political parties representing government and the markets are too evenly matched, and the party in power will retain its veto power through 2016.  Its authority to force businesses, physicians, and other elements of health care economy may diminish, but it still retains the bully pulpit,  has an existing law on its side,   appeals to millions  dependent on the government dole' has, for the moment at least, the media on its side, and is about to launch a multimillion PR campaign to “sell” Obamacare.
Tweet:    Despite tectonic forces that may erupt and end Obamacare,  this is not likely to happen given the political circumstances


Anonymous said...

You've made some good points there. I looked on the web for more information about the issue and found most people will go along with your views on this site.

My web page; stall mats

Anonymous said...

I simply couldn't leave your website prior to suggesting that I actually enjoyed the usual information an individual provide in your visitors? Is gonna be back incessantly to investigate cross-check new posts

Check out my page :: stall mats for gym floor

Anonymous said...

Howdy! Would you mind if I share your blog with my myspace
group? There's a lot of folks that I think would really appreciate your content. Please let me know. Thank you

Also visit my website ... garage rubber flooring

Anonymous said...

I love what you guys are usually up too. This sort of clever work and coverage!

Keep up the great works guys I've added you guys to blogroll.

Feel free to surf to my web blog: reviews on chicco baby swing

Anonymous said...

I'm gone to say to my little brother, that he should also pay a quick visit this webpage on regular basis to obtain updated from newest news.

my homepage :: office desk for sale

Anonymous said...

Hi there, just wanted to say, I enjoyed this blog post.
It was helpful. Keep on posting!

Feel free to surf to my web blog - heavy duty office chairs 400 lb capacity

Anonymous said...

Howdy! Do you use Twitter? I'd like to follow you if that would be okay. I'm absolutely enjoying your blog and look forward to new

Also visit my blog post - best bedding sets

Anonymous said...

What's up everyone, it's my first visit at this site, and article is in fact fruitful in
support of me, keep up posting these articles.

Feel free to surf to my web page; outdoor baby swing wooden

Anonymous said...

I quite like reading through a post that will make people think.
Also, thanks for allowing me to comment!

Here is my blog post fisher price learning home playset

Anonymous said...

I know this if off topic but I'm looking into starting my own weblog and was wondering what all is needed to get setup? I'm assuming having a blog like yours would
cost a pretty penny? I'm not very internet savvy so I'm not
100% positive. Any suggestions or advice would be greatly appreciated.

Thank you

Feel free to visit my web page ... delfield prep table

Anonymous said...

Good respond in return of this matter with solid arguments
and explaining the whole thing regarding that.

Feel free to surf to my web-site: solid wood dining table set

Anonymous said...

I'm really enjoying the theme/design of your blog. Do you ever run into any browser compatibility problems? A couple of my blog visitors have complained about my site not working correctly in Explorer but looks great in Safari. Do you have any suggestions to help fix this problem?

My homepage - bar stools cheap walmart

Anonymous said...

Amazing! Its truly remarkable article, I have got much clear idea regarding from this post.

Stop by my webpage - cheap baby furniture sets

Anonymous said...

It's wonderful that you are getting thoughts from this piece of writing as well as from our dialogue made at this time.

Review my page clothing rack heavy duty

Anonymous said...

Have you ever considered about including a little bit more than just
your articles? I mean, what you say is valuable and everything.
But think about if you added some great photos or video clips to give your posts more, "pop"!
Your content is excellent but with pics and clips, this site could definitely
be one of the greatest in its field. Very good blog!

My homepage

Anonymous said...

I like the helpful info you provide in your articles. I'll bookmark your weblog and check again here regularly. I am quite certain I'll learn a lot of new stuff right here!
Good luck for the next!

Here is my webpage; travel systems on sale

Anonymous said...

I know this web site provides quality based posts and extra information, is there any other
site which presents these data in quality?

Here is my site - cheap single bed frames sydney