These are facts, not predictions.
Tweet: 2013 promises to be a dark year for Obamacare with scattered patches of light for certain population segments.
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The Fog
Index measures the level of reading difficulty of any document.
The
formula for the index is as follows:
(
(average number of words per sentence) + (number of words of 3 syllables or
more) ) X 0.4 = Fog index
The Fog
Index level 'translates' the number of years education a reader needs to
understand the material. The "ideal" score is 7 or 8; anything above
12 is too hard for most people to read.
Definition
of Fog Index
December
29, 2012 – When I’m having trouble understanding a piece of writing, I
apply the Fog Index. This was the
situation as I read “A Glimpse of the Next 100 years in Medicine” in the
December 27 New England Journal of
Medicine.
The
following passage befogged me.
“The size and
complexity of this multidimensional characterization will lead to far more
complex diagnostic and prognostic categories than are currently in use. The multivariate categories of large populations
will allow stratification of a kind seen only in the most recent genomically informed
clinical trials. Massive data crunching
will yield analytic or algorithmic formulas that will be useful for clinical purposes
even though they defy easy summary in a language most of us can
understand. Complex but empirically validated
algorithms will be embedded in EHR systems as decision support tools to
assist in everyday patient care. These management algorithms will evolve and
be modified continuously in accordance with inputs from ongoing clinical
observations and rom new research. Clinical support algorithms will be derived entirely
from data, not expert opinion, market incentives, or committee consensus. The
huge amount of data available will make it possible to draw inferences from
observations that will not be encumbered by unknown cofounding.”
Why
was I having troubling digesting these 157 words? Perhaps it was because of
the high Fox Index.
The
average sentence length was 22. 2 words.
The number of three syllable words per 100 words was 30.1.
The
Fog Index was 22.2 + 30.1 X 0.4= 20.9.
This
means it would take 20.9 years of education to grasp the essence of what was
being said. I suppose this is about
right for New England Journal of Medicine readers. Four years of high school,
four years of college, four years of medical school, and 5 years of
post-graduate training adds up to 17 years of education. Still, I wonder if
it could have been said more simply.
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