Obamacare Predictions for 2013
Prediction
is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future.
Neils Bohr (1885-1962), Danish Physicist
Weather
forecast for tonight: continuing darkness for tonight with scattered light by
morning.
George Carlin (1937-2008), American Comedian
December 31, 2012 – It’s come at last, the last day
of 2012, and nearly the first day of 2013, which promise to be an unluckily numbered year
for Obamacare and for most American
citizens, if one excludes the young
covered under their parents’ policies,
the preferred thousands covered for pre-existing illnesses , and
certain seniors falling into the dreaded Donut Hole.
I will trust that things work out better than I predict, that these predictions
are not self-fullfilling dark prophecies, that I am not akin to the proverbial
groundhog that makes its statement, then disappears until next year.
I will avoid the obvious – that taxes are going to
rise sharply in 2013 – by 2.3% on total revenues of device manufacturers, by
0.9% on the payroll tax for Medicare, by limiting deductions for medical
expenses to 7.5% to 10% of income, by 3.8 % on incomes for couples making
$250,000 or more, by a variety of surtaxes on capital gains, dividends, estate
taxes, and other items; and by $1.76
trillion from 2012-2021, and $2.5
trillion form 2014 to 2023.
These are facts, not predictions.
I will touch briefly on my series of books - New
Voice of Health Reform – Rhyme, Rhetoric & Reality, with the emphasis
on Reality, which will begin appearing in 2013.
And I will make these dark predictions which may be
accompanied by scattered light.
·
Employers will begin dropping workers
from coverage and converting full-time workers to part-time workers at they realize they can no longer afford comprehensive
government plans with “guaranteed issue” for every worker, young or old, healthy or ill, able or disabled.
·
Implementation of health exchanges, the
core Obamacare issue for covering Medicaid and subsidizing those under 4 times
poverty, will be rocky and difficult because of failure of 30 or more states to
set up their own exchanges and to hand over the job to the federal government to
run the state-shows.
·
Premiums will spike by 20% to 30% for
most Americans, even double says Aetna’s CEO.
·
The physician shortage will intensify as
reimbursements fall and regulations
skyrocket.
·
Physicians will go to work for hospitals
in droves, and this will result in soaring costs to see a doctor for ordinary
visits and extraordinary reasons.
·
Consolidation of hospitals and large
physician groups, with waves of previously unthinkable mergers and
acquisitions, will occur, as providers seek ways to cope with Medicare
cuts, and administrative, technological,
and regulatory challenges.
The good news is that the bad news will be good news
for consultants, government bureaucrats, auditors, accountants, and IRS agents who will be required to
take care of and to track developments on multiple reform fronts.
Tweet: 2013 promises to be a dark year for Obamacare with scattered patches of light for certain population segments.
No comments:
Post a Comment