Tuesday, June 5, 2012

Health Reform and Chaos Theory

June 5, 2012 - Chaos theory says if a butterfly flaps its wings in Brazil, the flapping may end up by triggering a tornado in Texas.
In other words, a tiny input into any weather  system may cause a huge event downstream.

I think of the Brazilian butterfly when I think of the Supreme Court decision due on June 25, 2012. Those awaiting the decision say it may cause chaos.

Democrats fear it may throw the whole health reform effort into chaotic disarray.

Republicans  think ithe chaos  may be a good chaos because it will open the door to repeal of the health law. It will allow them to start all over again with a more commonsensical lower cost reform effort preserving many of the elements of a market-driven system.

Democrats counter by asserting market-driven systems are chaotic and unfair to boot.
An adverse Supreme court decison   be the nail on the coffin for the President’s re-election.

I am not saying the decision is a tiny event. It is not. It is huge. But the decision may rest on some small slights. The President insulting the Supreme Court in a single sentence in a State of the Union address; the lack of a single phone call by the President to Republican leaders leading up to passage; a single sentence by House leader Nancy Pelosi, “We’ll have to pass the bill to see what’s in it,”; the passage of the bill using a seldom used parliamentary procedures called reconciliation in the middle of a single night; two Medicaid bribes to wavering Louisiana and Nebraska senator.

Tweet: Sometimes in weather and human storm systems, little things or mistakes  at the beginning can cause  chaos at the end.

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