Saturday, July 5, 2014

On the Senate Hangs Obama’s Hangs Obama's Legacy and ObamaCare’s Fate

Things are where they are, and, as
fate has willed.
So shall they be fulfilled

Aeschylus (515-456 BC), Agamenon

I have said repeatedly that Obama’s legacy and the fate of ObamaCare hang on the Senate midterm elections. It was born a partisan bill, and it will die a partisan bill.

If Democrats win the Senate, ObamaCare will hang on until 2016 and beyond in an altered form.

If the GOP wins the Senate, Republicans will seek to sink ObamaCare and will cripple it, and then repeal it if they win the Presidency in 2016.

To me, it is as simple as that. But it is not simple, because the outcome is still very much in doubt.

The current seats are: 53 Democrats, 45 Republicans, 1 Independents.

The projected seats are: 52 Republicans, 48 Democrats. But projections are weak and subject to outcomes of current controversies and events.

The projected seats are far from certain, as indicated by the these projections on the relative strengths of the two parties.

• Alaska – weak Democratic hold

• Arkansas – weak GOP hold

• Colorado – weak Democratic hold

• Georgia – weak GOP hold

• Iowa - weak Democratic hold

• Kentucky – weak GOP hold

• Louisiana – weak GOP hold

• Michigan - moderate Democratic hold

• North Carolina – weak Democratic hold

• South Dakota – strong GOP hold

• Maine – strong GOP hold

• Oregon – strong Democratic hold

When you go over the list, you will see the Senate is still up for grabs – with 6 Democratic and 6 GOP leaning states.

As the pundits like say, control of the Senate is still too close to call, especially in those states with weak holds on the electorate.

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