Latest Statistics on Presidential Election and Obamacare

October 9, 2011 - I’m a sucker for statistics. Statistics give a sharper picture of the state of U.S. affairs than mere words and opinions.

Here the latest statistics.

• From Realclearpolitics.com, which publishes average results of national polls.

--President Obama job approval 42.1%, disapproval 51.4%, Spread -9.3%

--Congressional job approval 13.0%, disapproval 82.3%, Spread, -69.3%

-- Generic Congressional vote, Republicans, 41.8%, Democrats, 41.5%, Spread, +0.3%

- Obamacare, Oppose, 50.0%, Favor, 38.6%, Spread, -11.4%

--Repeal of Obamacare, favor, 49.0%,oppose 40.3%, Spread, -8.7%

• From Intrade.com, which publishes predictions of those placing bets on national events.

--Mitt Romney to be Republican presidential nominee in 2012 - 61.9% chance

--Rick Perry to be Republican presidential nominee in 2012- 18.7% chance

--US economy to go into recession in 2012 – 65.0%

-- President Obama to be re-elected President in 2012 – 47.9%

-- Marco Rubio to be Republican VP in 2012 – 20.1%

--Republicans to control Senate in 2012- 67.1%

What These Statistics Mean for Obama and Health Reform

For the moment, these statistical snapshots mean President Obama and his health reform law are in trouble. His election will hinge on two issues – the state of the economy and the Supreme Court decision on the constitutionality of the individual mandate and perhaps of the whole health law.

According to an article in today’s October 9 Sunday New York Times, “An Ugly Forecast That’s been Right Before, “ the Economic Cycle Institute in New York City, which in the past has invariably picked chances of a recession, the economy will go negative by end of the first quarter of 2012. And conventional wisdom has it that the Supreme Court will rule Obamacare unconstitutional with Judge Anthony Kennedy casting the decisive vote in a 5/4 decision.

It is, of course, a long, long way from here to November 2012, and the mellifluous President Obama has the Bully Pulpit and the elite media on his side. I would not discount his chances for re-election. But if a double-dip recession and the Supreme Court intercedes, it is likely Obamacare will lie in tatters, whether or not President Obama wins re-election.