Individual Mandate: Will Obamacare and Obama Survive the Courts?

WOULD IT ALL COLLAPSE? The rulings so far suggest that the rest of the law would remain standing even if the mandate was struck down – only one district judge has ruled that the whole law would have to be declared unconstitutional.

Phillip M. Boffey, “Will Health Care Reform Survive the Courts? New York Times, August 21, 2011

August 22, 2011 - Here are the District Court and Court of Repeals rulings so far:

Upheld

1) District Court of Eastern Michigan
2) District Court of District of Columbia
3 District Court of Western Virginia
4) Court of Appeals of Sixth District

Struck Down

1) District Court of Eastern Virginia
2) District Court ofNorthern Florida
3) Appeals Court of Atlanta

Courts to Go

1)Court of Appeals of District of Columbia Circuit
2)Court of Appeals of Fourth Circuit
3)Supreme Court

Summary: 4 up, 3 down, 3 to go, including the big one, the Supreme Court, where a 5-4 down decision against is deemed likely.

Will Obamacare and Obama himself survive if the Supreme Court rules the individual mandate unconstitutional and the rest of the law operative? No one knows, but odds are the law would not function well without the individual mandate, and Obama’s election would be imperiled.