Poll Watching and Obamacare Watching

As a realist, I know partisan politics and Obamacare implementation are inseparable . I know one man’s self-interests and may not reflect the national interests. I know blogs reflect a blogger’s bias.

The only way I know to judge whether Obamacare will prevail as a historic package, or whether it will falter segmentally and fall into pieces is to watch the national poll averages. All polls, of course, are subject to change and are simply a snapshot in time. In politics, four months is a lifetime.

Here is how averages of national polls look at the moment, with just under four months to go until November 2 midterms.

• Governorships – Poll Projection, 32 Republicans, 18 Democrats, GOP +9 - Important because most state budgets must balance by law. Obamacare shifts at least 16 million Medicaid recipients to states but pays only 20% of freight. At least 20 state attorney generals are challenging constitutionality of individual mandates, the foundation of Obamacare, and by extension the constitutionality of health exchanges. May well become Supreme Court issue.

• House of Representatives – Poll Projection, 203 Democrats, 222 Republicans, GOP + 44. All seats are in play. The exact number of seats gained is uncertain, but it is certain the GOP will gain seats, as few as 30 and as many at 70. Whatever the precise number, the House funds the President’s programs and could stall or even strangle many of the President’s initiatives. With President Obama’s veto power, Repeal and Replacement is unlikely. It is worth noting 47 physicians are running for Congress, and 41 are Republicans.

• U.S. Senate – Poll Projection- 51 Democrats, 49 Republicans, GOP +7. One-third of seats at play Democrats will still control Senate, but will not have filibuster-proof majority. Things likely to be contentious because of implications for 2012 , when more Senators, mostly Democrats, will be up for re-election, along with President Obama. Obama is certain to trumpet his health care legislation as an historic achievement.

• Obama Approval, Approve 46.0%, Disapprove 46.3%, spread -0.3%

• Congressional Approval, Approve 21.8%, Disapprove 71.2%, spread, -49.4%

• Direction of Country, Right direction 31.6%, Wrong Direction 61.8%, spread -30.2%

• Health Plan Approval, latest poll, Rasmussen, likely voters, Favor 40%, Oppose 55%, spread -15%